Mid Year 2025: Economic Outlook, Residential Market Trends and Tariffs
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This mid-year briefing focuses on the residential sector: one of huge importance to the UK both socially and economically, and one which is currently struggling, particularly on the development side.
What exactly is going on? Why is building homes proving so difficult, given the government’s promise to deliver 1.5m new homes over its parliamentary term?
But as usual, before going into those details, there is a quick overview of the economy, the wider property landscape and the recent spending review – as well as some predictions regarding the implications of the Trump presidency for the property market.
Quick Summary
- The economy grew by an unexpectedly high figure of 0.7% in Q1, but saw a 0.3% fall in April.
- Stockpiling caused by Donald Trump’s tariffs may have boosted the former figure, explaining the reversal the following month.
- Inflation came in higher than expected in April at 3.5%, but core inflation fell back, and the labour market is becoming less tight.
- Gilt yields have fallen by 20-25bps over the past month, which should provide some support for property investment and development.
*This research has been prepared for general information purposes only. It does not constitute any investment, financial or other specialised advice or recommendations, and you should not, therefore, rely on its contents for such purposes. You should seek separate professional advice if required.
If you have any questions about this briefing note, or any other aspect of the commercial or residential market, please contact jon.neale@montagu-evans.co.uk. We also carry out bespoke research for clients to inform strategy, guide policy or aid in individual sites or developments – learn more here.
- Mid Year 2025: Economic Outlook, Residential Market Trends and Tariffs